Analysis by Region - North America

Analysis by Region - North America

We expect GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, though the underwhelming performance reflects a slower inventory build and weaker exports. While we believe the economy will prove resilient to rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, risks are tilted to the downside, and our yield curve models signal increased risk of a harder landing in 2023. We see real GDP growing 3.1% in 2022 and slowing meaningfully to 2% in 2023.

US: Rapid inflation to spur aggressive Fed policy tightening
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of the forecast
Economic risk
Economic Risk Evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy

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