Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.4ppts to 3% to reflect a stronger-than-expected Q2 outturn. Recent data have been more downbeat, supporting our view of a recession in H2. We expect activity will be increasingly affected by the resurgence of inflationary pressures and recent policy tightening, with further rate hikes to come. As a result, we've cut our 2024 growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 0.7%, near the bottom of the consensus range.
Turkey: recession looms despite upward revision to outlookForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicy and politics