Analysis by Region - MENA

Analysis by Region - MENA

We've raised our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.4ppts to 3% to reflect a stronger-than-expected Q2 outturn. Recent data have been more downbeat, supporting our view of a recession in H2. We expect activity will be increasingly affected by the resurgence of inflationary pressures and recent policy tightening, with further rate hikes to come. As a result, we've cut our 2024 growth forecast by 0.7ppts to 0.7%, near the bottom of the consensus range.

Turkey: recession looms despite upward revision to outlook
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
Policy and politics

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