Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa

The combined impact of sporadic loadshedding and the recent strike at Transnet will have adverse implications for local industry and cost the economy billions in Q4. We expect the South African economy to enter a shallow recession in Q3, with real GDP forecast to contract by 0.2% q-o-q, and sluggish growth is expected in the final quarter of 2022. Weak economic momentum is expected to carry over to 2023, with real GDP growth forecast to ease to 1.0%.


South Africa: economy reverting to slow growth environment
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
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