Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa

There is no escaping the fact that the energy crisis in South Africa is worsening. The country has experienced stage 6 loadshedding once before this year, but not on a weekend when electricity demand is lower. Many people believe that the full scale of the crisis is not being communicated, increasing speculation and fear over the possible collapse of the electricity grid. Although our base case at the moment is for the economy to avoid a recession in 2022, the continuation of intense loadshedding could see a consecutive q-o-q contraction in real GDP during Q3 2022. We look for the economy to expand by 1.8% this year, slightly below the consensus forecast of 1.9%.


South Africa: Inflation forecast maintained but real GDP revised down to 1.8%
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and Politics

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