Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

We've cut our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Poland again this month, and now forecast a 0.3% y/y fall this year, followed by 3% growth in 2024. The high frequency data for Q1 2023 is almost fully released and paints a rather bleak picture: elevated inflation has been weighing on consumer demand and tightened monetary policy has hit interest-sensitive sectors. So, although GDP expanded over Q1 and will continue to advance as inflation falls and fiscal policy is loosened, we think sequential growth will stay subdued throughout the year.