Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya



The shilling has staged an impressive recovery, appreciating to KSh134.5/$ on March 15 from a record high of KSh163.0/$ on January 25. The strong bout of appreciation can be ascribed to upsized packages from both the IMF and World Bank, as well as the issuance of a new Eurobond worth $1.5bn. Given the recent rally, we have revised our exchange rate forecast for 2024, with the shilling expected to close H1 at KSh135.9/$, before commencing on a depreciatory path in Q3 to close the year at KSh141.0/$. A slightly more pessimistic projection places the shilling at KSh145.1/$ by end-H1 and KSh150.2/$ by end-H2.


Kenya: a new dawn for the shilling
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk Evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and Politics

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