Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary

We have kept our GDP forecast unchanged this month and expect a 0.8% contraction in 2023, to be followed by a 2.6% rebound next year. In line with last month's call, GDP for Q2 surprised to the downside, having fallen 0.3% on the quarter, extending the streak of sequential contractions to four. We think that the rebound over H2 will be gradual as domestic policy remains tight and we see little prospect of a meaningful pickup in demand, especially foreign, before Q4.