Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We have kept our GDP forecast unchanged this month and expect a 0.8% contraction in 2023, to be followed by a 2.6% rebound next year. In line with last month's call, GDP for Q2 surprised to the downside, having fallen 0.3% on the quarter, extending the streak of sequential contractions to four. We think that the rebound over H2 will be gradual as domestic policy remains tight and we see little prospect of a meaningful pickup in demand, especially foreign, before Q4.
Hungary: Another GDP fall in L2 sets poor starting point for D2Forecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradePolicyPolitics