Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
Hungarian GDP fell 0.4% q/q in Q4 last year – less than expected, but confirmed the economy experienced a technical recession in H2 2022. The weak end to 2022 bodes ill for Q1, when we think the economy will shrink further as inflation and withdrawal of fiscal support weigh on domestic demand. Meanwhile, falling gas prices and a stronger currency, if sustained, will boost the economy over H2. On balance, we have lifted our GDP growth forecast to -0.4% this year, to be followed by 2.7% expansion in 2024.
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