Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary

Hungarian GDP fell 0.4% q/q in Q4 last year – less than expected, but confirmed the economy experienced a technical recession in H2 2022. The weak end to 2022 bodes ill for Q1, when we think the economy will shrink further as inflation and withdrawal of fiscal support weigh on domestic demand. Meanwhile, falling gas prices and a stronger currency, if sustained, will boost the economy over H2. On balance, we have lifted our GDP growth forecast to -0.4% this year, to be followed by 2.7% expansion in 2024.

Hungary: Despite improved outlook, we think 2023 recession is still on
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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