Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Croatia
Croatia's economy bounced back briskly from the pandemic in 2021 despite ending the year with a slight GDP contraction. Looking ahead to this year, though, we expect growth to slow considerably from 10% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022, down from our previous forecast of 4.4%. Higher inflation, stemming from elevated global commodity prices, will disrupt growth this year as supply bottlenecks persist and real income growth turns negative. A stock of excess savings and the disbursement of EU funds will support growth in the near and medium term, but risks are tilted significantly to the downside. That said, we see growth picking up to 4.9% in 2023.
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