Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
Battered by a combination of external and domestic shocks, especially the war in Ukraine, delayed rainfall and livestock fevers, economic growth slowed to 1.8% in 2022. We forecast a stronger number of 3.4% real GDP growth for 2023 as the country obtains grants to the tune of 11.6% of GDP per year from 2023 to 2028, following the upliftment of sanctions by the EU and the US. Also, we expect a rebound in mining output which will benefit fiscal revenue collection and foreign currency inflows. Additionally, the country should benefit from economic reforms and an uptick in public investments given the support from the IMF.
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