Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

We've raised our 2024 GDP growth expectation for Brazil by 0.2ppts to 0.9% to reflect the January monthly activity release that showed a third consecutive upside surprise driven by the services sector. Our forecast is still below that of consensus, as we have low conviction that a structural improvement in Brazil's potential growth will occur, or that the effects of contractionary fiscal and monetary policies will be limited in the short run.

Brazil: Growth outlook improved but at the cost of higher inflation
forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
global scenario analysis
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade

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