Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
The Q2 national accounts release forced us to raise our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Brazil to 3%. The 0.9% q/q Q2 expansion was supported by strong household consumption and a thriving services sector, both at odds with credit conditions. Agriculture output also jumped by over 20%YTD, and we forecast that less favourable weather in H2 will revert it closer to its historical trend. Our recent growth accounting assessment supports our below consensus call for 0.3% growth next year.
Brazil: K2 resilience only postpones a sharper correction in D2Forecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our Short-term ForecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationrisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to Key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and Structure of tradepolitics