Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil



The Q2 national accounts release forced us to raise our 2023 GDP growth forecast for Brazil to 3%. The 0.9% q/q Q2 expansion was supported by strong household consumption and a thriving services sector, both at odds with credit conditions. Agriculture output also jumped by over 20%YTD, and we forecast that less favourable weather in H2 will revert it closer to its historical trend. Our recent growth accounting assessment supports our below consensus call for 0.3% growth next year.


Brazil: K2 resilience only postpones a sharper correction in D2
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and Structure of trade
politics

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