Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa

Analysis by Region - Africa - South Africa

South Africa's real GDP growth of 1.2% q-o-q in Q4 was lower than the consensus forecast of 1.3% q-o-q, and higher than our expectation of a 1.1% q-o-q expansion. The latest increase means that annual real GDP rose by 4.9% in 2021 following a contraction of 6.4% in 2020. South Africa’s economy expanded by the quickest pace since 2007, but real GDP grew by an average rate of only 0.3% p.a. over the past five years. Although the forecast for the next five years is higher, the outlook is not necessarily any brighter. Unless meaningful policy reform starts to happen, foreign investment will remain evasive and the economy will continue to be stuck in a low growth trap, bedevilled by high unemployment and elevated inflation.

South Africa: Real GDP growth revised to 1.6% in 2022
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
It all boils down to a faster-growing economy.
South Africa’s economic outlook points to some near-term growth but the medium-term prospects are dull.
Decisive action on the policy front is needed to serve as a driver of growth.
State capture has seen the economy’s bottom fall out, and widespread inefficiency at a government level means that increased private sector involvement is essential.
South Africa’s young and growing population does not just require new schools to be built; it desperately needs jobs and, importantly, the appropriate knowledge and skills.
Even with the finest business environment and a strong growing economy, job creation will take time.
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and Politics

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