Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Following a drought-driven recession in H1 2022, an uptick in consumption supported a bounce back in the Moroccan economy in Q3 2022. This resulted in higher-than-anticipated real GDP growth over the first three quarters of this year, which prompted an upward revision to our forecast to 0.8% growth this year, from a contraction of 1.4% expected previously. However, domestic economic conditions remain challenging with uncertainty around whether the dry spell seen this year will end anytime soon. Furthermore, the global economic backdrop has darkened and Morocco's key trade partner − the eurozone − is expected to enter a recession in Q4 2022. Overall, we have cut our forecast for real GDP growth by 2.2 ppts to 1.8% in 2023 to reflect these developments.
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