Analysis by Region - Africa - Morocco
Since our February update, the severity of a drought-driven agricultural downturn has become much clearer, while the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on eurozone demand for Moroccan goods has been felt. With considerable downside risk to economic activity, we have revised our real GDP growth forecast downwards to 0.8% this year, from 3.2% in the February forecast round. Following a q-o-q decline in Q1, we expect another contraction in Q2, after which growth should turn positive on a quarterly basis. The impact of elevated raw material costs, ongoing supply chain disruptions and muted consumer demand will continue to be felt in coming months.
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