Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt

Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt

Egypt's purchasing managers' index (PMI) edged higher for the fourth month running in July, supported by an improvement in domestic demand conditions and output price inflation. The non-oil sector, however, remained in contractionary territory and business confidence levels were close to historical lows in July amid ongoing uncertainty around the completion of the first review of the IMF programme as well as the direction of the exchange rate. Our short-term outlook for the Egyptian economy remains clouded by the prospect of another currency devaluation, which we think could happen in Q4 2023. We have left our economic growth estimate for the 2022/23 fiscal year (FY), which ends in June, unchanged at 2.2% and we still project economic growth at 2.4% in the 2023/24 FY.

Egypt: Key Policy rate hike raises questions about Another devaluation
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and Politics

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