The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The monetary policy council voted for a further 25bp cut at its July meeting, taking the reference rate down to 2.5%. The accompanying press release contained a very strong indication that this would mark the end of the current easing cycle (down from 4.75% in October 2012). Our view is that the subdued outlook for both growth and inflation imply a prolonged pause in policy, with interest rates set to remain at their current level until 2014Q4. This is down from our forecast last month, with rates expected to remain lower for longer. We now assume that the government will not raise VAT by 1% next year. As a result, inflation is forecast to average 2.1% in 2014, down from the 2.4% we anticipated at end-May. Meanwhile, high frequency data indicate that activity has remained very subdued in Q2. Seasonally and working-day adjusted (SWDA) industrial production fell back sharply in May although the June manufacturing PMI reading did offer some tentative signs of recovery. Overall, the data have been slightly disappointing and we now expect that year-on-year GDP growth will be 0.6% in Q2. And for 2013 as a whole we forecast annual expansion of 0.8%, down from 0.9% previously.