Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United Arab Emirates

The October PMI survey for the UAE painted an upbeat picture of activity in the non-oil private sector, with the headline index at 56.6, just shy of a three-year high. The PMI indicates domestic economic conditions will likely remain strong in 2023, helped by new orders, while job creation in the UAE is the fastest since July 2016. Meanwhile, tourism activity continues its rebound, with Dubai airport passenger traffic returning to pre-Covid levels in Q3 2022. Overall, the economy is proving more resilient than expected to global headwinds such as higher inflation and rising interest rates. As a result, we have revised up our forecast for non-oil GDP growth in 2022 to 4.9% from 4.4% previously, with overall GDP growth expected to average 7.5%.