Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States

We now expect the US economy to experience a mild recession in H1 2023 as high inflation, rising interest rates, lingering supply chain difficulties, softer labor market dynamics, and global headwinds weaken demand. Our forecast for 2022 real GDP growth remains unchanged at 1.7% as economic momentum should remain resilient in H2 2022. However, we have cut our 2023 forecast by 1ppt to a flat outcome.


US: Mild recession in 2023 is now our base case
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term forecast
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic Risk Evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Policy
Politics

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