Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
We have cut our near-term GDP growth forecast for Poland as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit trade through sanctions and investment sentiment via elevated uncertainty. In addition, higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for longer, which will weigh on real incomes and consumer spending. However, looser fiscal policy, due in part to new refugee-related and military spending, will cushion some of the blow to activity. We have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 0.6ppts to 4.2% in 2022 and by 0.2ppts to 3.5% in 2023.
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