Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Poland

We have cut our near-term GDP growth forecast for Poland as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit trade through sanctions and investment sentiment via elevated uncertainty. In addition, higher energy commodity prices will keep inflation elevated for longer, which will weigh on real incomes and consumer spending. However, looser fiscal policy, due in part to new refugee-related and military spending, will cushion some of the blow to activity. We have cut our GDP growth forecasts by 0.6ppts to 4.2% in 2022 and by 0.2ppts to 3.5% in 2023.

Poland: Lower growth and higher inflation expected due to war
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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