Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

We've lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Italy this year and next. The flash Q2 GDP estimate pointed to a 0.3% drop and was a touch worse than our below-consensus estimate. According to the preliminary estimate, services was the only sector to post a small but positive growth rate, with manufacturing and construction weighing on the print. Moreover, we believe Italian activity will be very subdued in H2 with some negative carry-over effects for 2024. We expect the economy to grow by 0.8% this year and by 0.6% in 2024.

Italy: Outlook is cloudy for year's end and early 2024
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade

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