Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We've lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Italy this year and next. The flash Q2 GDP estimate pointed to a 0.3% drop and was a touch worse than our below-consensus estimate. According to the preliminary estimate, services was the only sector to post a small but positive growth rate, with manufacturing and construction weighing on the print. Moreover, we believe Italian activity will be very subdued in H2 with some negative carry-over effects for 2024. We expect the economy to grow by 0.8% this year and by 0.6% in 2024.
Italy: Outlook is cloudy for year's end and early 2024Forecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our short-term forecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationRisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and structure of tradePolicyPolitics