Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

We've lowered our GDP growth forecasts for Italy this year and next. The flash Q2 GDP estimate pointed to a 0.3% drop and was a touch worse than our below-consensus estimate. According to the preliminary estimate, services was the only sector to post a small but positive growth rate, with manufacturing and construction weighing on the print. Moreover, we believe Italian activity will be very subdued in H2 with some negative carry-over effects for 2024. We expect the economy to grow by 0.8% this year and by 0.6% in 2024.