Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy

We have slashed our GDP growth forecasts for Italy by around 1ppt to 1% in 2023. After a robust Q2, in which GDP is seen growing at around 1%, we now think economic performance will be subdued in H2 2022, with a contraction arriving in Q4. High energy prices, gas rationing, and supply-chain disruptions will weigh on the economy. While our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Italy is positive at 3.5%, we have raised our inflation forecast for the year by 0.5ppts to 6.8% to reflect our expectation that inflation will peak higher.

Italy: Gas supply concerns to cut 2023 growthForecast overviewRecent developmentsShort-term outlookKey drivers of our short-term forecastEconomic riskEconomic risk evaluationRisk warningsWhat to watch out forExposure to key global risksLong-term prospectsBackgroundEconomic developmentStructure of the economyBalance of payments and structure of tradePolicyPolitics

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