Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ireland

We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Ireland sharply to -1.6% from 1.9% last month but left our outlook for next year broadly unchanged at 4.4%. We attribute the 2024 downgrade to to the large downward revision to Q4 2023 GDP, which resulted in a very weak carryover into this year. That said, we caution that GDP is a flawed measure to assess the Irish economy. Our forecasts for a range of metrics, which together provide a more accurate and timely assessment of the economy, project underlying growth of around 2% in 2024 and 2025, consistent with some moderation from actual growth in 2023 between 3%-4% in 2023 and over 8% in 2022.

Ireland: the economy shifts into a slower gear
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk w

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