Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece

We have raised our 2022 GDP growth for Greece to 5.3% from 2.8% last month. This reflects the huge Q1 GDP surprise, which showed unexpected strength amid high numbers of Covid cases early in 2022 and the start of war in Ukraine in February. GDP rose by 2.4% q/q, consistent with a reacceleration in growth following a 0.8% expansion in Q4 of 2021. The 5.3% outturn in 2022 assumes a sharp moderation in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q2, with subdued growth remaining in H2. Downside risks continue to dominate, but our modest projections for the rest of 2022 mean the near-term outlook is also subject to some upside risks, particularly from tourism.