Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Australia

Inflation surprised to the upside in Q1, while data on the real economy disappointed and presents some downside risk to our outlook for 2024. The upcoming budget will attempt to walk a fine line between providing some impetus to a sluggish economy without stoking a stubbornly persistent inflation problem. By keeping rates on hold in May, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled it is still prepared to be patient with inflation to keep some momentum in the labour market, but its credibility will be stretched too thin at some point. Our outlook for 2024 growth is unchanged at 1.3%.

Australia: Slow growth, fast inflation a bad mix for policymakers
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our Short-term Forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to Key global risks
Long-term prospects
Economic development
Structure of the economy

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