The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand Private consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding (% of GDP) Government consumption Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Unemployment Consumer prices Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) Government budget (% of GDP) Short-term interest rates (%) Long-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) Exchange rate (vs. euro) Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth Monthly industrial output Business and consumer confidence Unemployment rate Retail sales Prices and earnings Consumption and investment Government balance and debt GDP and industrial production Monetary policy and bond yields Background Information on the country One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position Key Facts on the country Map of the country Key political facts Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 Structure of GDP by output - latest year Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook Corruption perceptions index- latest year Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Germany led the recovery in the Eurozone in Q2 2013, as the economy expanded 0.7% on the quarter after stalling in Q1. The figure was slightly higher than the 0.6% rise we had expected. Growth in Q2 was driven by a rebound of investment and further expansion of private consumption, while net exports also contributed positively to growth. The manufacturing sector will benefit from a gradual pick-up in demand across the region in the coming quarters. In June, manufacturing orders from the Eurozone jumped 10% on the month (and were 3% higher in Q2 than in Q1), while industrial output increased by 2.4% on the month. Nevertheless, the recovery appears broad-based, as both the services and construction PMIs stayed above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction in July. We forecast annual GDP growth of 0.6% in 2013 and 1.7% in 2014. With output set to rise steadily, capacity utilisation rates will pick up, encouraging businesses to invest. We expect investment will expand by around 4% in 2014, after declining for two years in a row. Companies will also benefit from favourable lending conditions and a low level of debt. Meanwhile, household consumption is expected to increase 1% in 2013 and 1.2% in 2014, driven by real wage growth and a solid labour market. But inflation will remain higher than the Eurozone average, at just under 2% both this year and next.