New Zealand: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP rose by 0.5% on the quarter in Q2 2014, following a very robust 1.4% rise in Q1. The strong performance in H1 was driven by double-digit growth in construction as rebuilding after the Christchurch earthquakes gained momentum. This in turn boosted import volumes by 2.9% on the quarter in Q2, with capital goods imports rising sharply. But with prospects for exports to Asia now slowing (the volume of exports of goods and services fell 2.9% on the quarter in Q2), agriculture production falling and milk and some other dairy prices still weak, growth is unlikely to rise much further. We forecast full-year expansion of 3.5% this year, which would be the best result since 2004. But the pace will moderate in 2015 and beyond as the rebuilding boost after the Canterbury earthquakes fades, while less accommodative monetary and fiscal policy will weigh on domestic demand and the terms of trade boost will steadily decline over the next two years. GDP is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016.