Zambia: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issue.
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overvie.
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the countr.
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic deman.
- Private consumptio.
- Fixed investmen.
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP.
- Government consumptio.
- Exports of goods and service.
- Imports of goods and service.
- Consumer price.
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP.
- Government budget (% of GDP.
- Short-term interest rates (%.
- Long-term interest rates (%.
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar.
- Exchange rate (vs. euro.
- Economic Overvie.
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecast.
- Charts and Table.
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growt.
- Monthly industrial outpu.
- Business and consumer confidenc.
- Unemployment rat.
- Retail sale.
- Prices and earning.
- Consumption and investmen.
- Government balance and deb.
- GDP and industrial productio.
- Monetary policy and bond yield.
- Background Information on the countr.
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current positio.
Zambia has remained relatively stable in recent years but uncertainty has been generated by upcoming elections, due on 20 January, following the death of President Sata, as well as a heavier tax burden on the mining sector and falling copper prices. Growth in 2014 slowed to about 6%, a little below expectations because of problems at some copper mines. Non-mining growth continued at about 7%, spearheaded by agri-business, construction and an expansionary public sector. With several mining and electricity supply ventures coming on stream, growth of 7% or faster is forecast for 2015-16. Copper production could reach 1m tonnes over this period and then rise to 1.5m tonnes towards the end of the decade as the next government is expected to be accommodating about the tax regime. Rising copper revenues should help to reduce the fiscal deficit that has opened in recent years because of high government spending and should also lift the current account back into small surplus in 2015-18.