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Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Country Economic Forecasts - Vietnam

Growth accelerated to an above-forecast 6.7% in 2015 as FDI reached record levels and export growth stayed strong despite depressed commodity prices. Our forecast shows growth staying in the 6-7% range in 2016-18 as improvements in trade access compensate for slowdown in some key trade partners, and non-textile industrial growth promotes export diversification. Inflation will pick up modestly from low rates at the end of 2015, but fiscal tightening and improved monetary control will avert the need for a slowdown in growth to stabilise prices. January’s ruling party congress reappointed the present general secretary for another five years and lined up a new prime minister likely to continue the cautious reforms of the past 10 years. This will maintain the improvement in business conditions and gradual sell-off of state industries that lifted FDI to record levels in 2015.

​Vietnam: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year

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