Country Economic Forecasts - Venezuela
We continue to expect a rapid acceleration of the economic collapse after the US imposition of oil sanctions, with GDP falling by 39% this year. Regime change is still seen as more likely than not over the next two years, but President Maduro could manage to cling on to power for longer, especially if PDVSA is able to continue redirecting its oil exports to alternative customers. This would imply a less dramatic initial collapse, but a much slower recovery.
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