Country Economic Forecasts - Uzbekistan
GDP growth remains on course to slow to about 5% in 2018-19 as industrial growth (spurred by competitiveness gains after the sharp devaluation of the som in September 2017) broadly offsets the agricultural slowdown. Inflation is now slowing from the January peak of 20.5%, as the UZS stabilises at its new market level. But inflation has been cushioned by subsidies to households and SOEs, which must soon be reduced if budget spending is to stay directed at infrastructure investment. While administrative reform has strengthened tax collection, a planned overhaul of tax will test the government’s reform commitment in 2019.
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