Country Economic Forecasts - Uruguay
Uruguay is now in recession, confirming our pessimistic view of the economy. Latest national accounts data show that GDP fell 0.1% q/q in both Q3 and Q4 2018, bringing growth for the full-year down to 1.6%. We expect the slowdown to continue into 2019, with domestic demand growth stagnating due to the lack of room for fiscal and monetary easing. A pick-up in growth in Q2 is possible due to an extremely good soybean harvest, but we expect net exports to be the only driver behind growth this year. We forecast GDP growth of just 1.2% in 2019 and then 2.5% in 2020.
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