Turkmenistan: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
GDP is reported to have grown 10.3% in H1, similar to the 10.2% outturn reported for full-year 2013. Within this, gas production jumped by 12%, while construction surged 15% due to a number of large public investment projects. As a result, and given the slowdown in China (which accounts for 70% of all exports) and near-recession in Russia, plus Iran’s intention to stop importing gas from Turkmenistan from 2015, we have nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for 2014 and 2015 to 10.2% and 10% respectively. Activity will remain underpinned by long-term gas contracts with China and implementation of a number of gas-related projects. Inflation is now expected to average just 5.2% this year, before rising back to 6% in 2015 as global food prices start to rise again and with the exchange rate expected to weaken following currency depreciation elsewhere in the region during 2014. And the current account deficit is expected to narrow to 0.5% of GDP in 2014 and should move into surplus over the medium term as import growth slows and exports rise more strongly due to increased gas capacity. But there are risks from a sustained slowdown in China, stagnation in Russia or a plunge in world gas prices.