Country Economic Forecasts - Sri Lanka
The economy grew by 7.4% last year, up from 7.2% in 2013, driven by strong tourism and infrastructure investment and aided by falling inflation and market interest rates. Most of these favourable conditions are expected to persist. As a result, we forecast Sri Lanka to grow by 7.5% in 2015. Tourist arrivals rose to 1.5m in 2014 and the target for 2016 is 2.5m visitors. In addition, merchandise exports should benefit from strengthening recoveries in the US and EU. Domestically, consumer spending growth should be robust, helped by low inflation buoying real wages. However, there are some risks; 3-month interbank interest rates have jumped 100bp in the last month to around 7.5%, having been stable for the previous five months, and the government’s budget deficit is still 5-6% of GDP. However, more positively, the narrowing in the current account deficit to less than 2% of GDP this year should encourage investors.
- Sri Lanka
- : The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year