Country Economic Forecasts - South Korea
Quarterly GDP growth accelerated to 1% in Q4 2018, up from 0.6% in Q3. Domestic demand was better than expected, while net exports were a drag. However, looking ahead, growth momentum will likely slow in H1 this year before gaining traction in H2. The slowdown in the Chinese economy and less robust global demand (particularly for electronics) will continue to depress Korea’s exports, especially before Chinese growth bottoms out in around Q2. Moreover, the US-China trade conflict will continue to cloud the outlook, though the current fairly constructive negotiations are a positive. Meanwhile, domestic demand is expected to be supported by fiscal stimulus which will be frontloaded in H1, though we do expect Q1 growth to be weaker given the surprising strength in Q4. We forecast GDP growth will slow to 2.3% in 2019.
South Korea: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.Highlights and Key Issuesfour/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic OverviewForecast Table showing % changes for the countrywith 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:Domestic demandPrivate consumptionFixed investmentStockbuilding (% of GDP)Government consumptionExports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesUnemploymentConsumer pricesCurrent account balance (US$ and % of GDP)Government budget (% of GDP)Short-term interest rates (%)Long-term interest rates (%)Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)Exchange rate (vs. euro)Economic Overviewtwo pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecastsCharts and Tablescovering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as:Contributions to GDP growthMonthly industrial outputBusiness and consumer confidenceUnemployment rateRetail salesPrices and earningsConsumption and investmentGovernment balance and debtGDP and industrial productionMonetary policy and bond yieldsBackground Information on the countryOne or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current positionKey Facts on the countryMap of the countryKey political factsLong-term economic and social developmentchanges since 1980Structure of GDP by outputlatest yearLong-term sovereign credit ratings and outlookCorruption perceptions index- latest yearStructural economic indicatorschanges since 1990Destination of goods' exports -prior yearslatest yearComposition of goods & services exportslatest year