Serbia: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
After a 1.8% fall in 2014, GDP grew 0.9% on the year in Q2 2015 and then 1% in Q3, with October's 7.8% annual rise in industrial output pointing to a further quickening of growth in Q4. The pick-up has been achieved without any immediate return to inflation, which stayed at 1.4% in October, well below the 2.5-5.5% target. A further pick-up in growth to 1.5% in 2016 and 2% in 2017 is forecast. The steady pick-up in growth reflects ongoing IMF support that will allow the budget deficit to stabilise at about 3% of GDP, with inward investment financing a similar order of current account deficit. But relatively modest growth and higher inflation in 2016-18 reflect economic risks from the large external debt and still-fragile banking system, the need for further reform and asset sales to ensure the capital inflow needed to finance the current account. In addition, there is the possibility of setbacks to reform as the ruling Progressive Party tries to renew its mandate ahead of elections due in 2018.