Russia: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Oil prices have fallen to their lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis, hovering at about US$36pb at the time of writing. This follows the OPEC meeting on 4 December at which the cartel confirmed that it would not curb output despite the current oil glut. Our forecast shows Russian GDP shrinking by 3.8% in 2015 and that the economy will remain in recession next year, declining by a further 0.9%. This is based on our assumption that oil prices will remain lower for longer, with a further sharp fall seen in the 2016 average price, leading to cuts in state spending. And the downside risks to our forecast are rising as growth will be even weaker if oil prices remain around current levels. The RUB has come under pressure again, losing around 13% of its value from its Q3 average, and 5% weaker since the OPEC meeting. But this compares to a 16% fall in oil prices over the same period, suggesting that the RUB may be resisting the oil price rout – for now at least – thanks to support from stronger capital inflows. Despite falling slightly to 15% in November, inflation remains high. The sanctions announced against agricultural goods from Turkey will create upward pressure on prices. This, and higher pass-through from the lower RUB, has led us to raise our forecast for inflation in 2016 to 7.5% from 7.1% previously.