Romania: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The economic outlook for Romania remains bright despite the collapse of the government in November. Domestic demand continued to drive growth in Q3, with GDP rising 1.4% on the quarter and 3.6% on the year as the upward trend in consumption and investment continued. Buoyant real income growth, underpinned by low or negative inflation and a gradual fall in unemployment, will be supportive of consumption throughout 2016. Tax cuts and increases in public sector wages will give a further boost to disposable incomes. But net exports will continue to be a moderate drag on growth. We still expect GDP growth of 3.7% in 2015, with a further pick-up to 3.9% in 2016 before slowing to about 3% a year in 2017-19. But the risks are on the downside are due to the prospect of fiscal unsustainability after the easing measures now under way, which have been criticized by the IMF and the EC but which are unlikely to be reversed by the new caretaker government ahead of elections in December 2016.