Country Economic Forecasts - Romania
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across Europe in recent weeks has led us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for 2020 to 1.4%, with the Romanian authorities recommending that citizens stay at home and that further restrictions will be enforced to contain the spread inside the country. We expect the virus will hit activity particularly in Q2, with sizeable negative impacts on supply chains, external demand and consumer sentiment. Moreover, the risks are to the downside if the virus takes longer to be contained, forcing an extended period of social and economic disruption. However, in our baseline forecast we expect a rebound to 2.6% GDP growth next year.
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