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Country Economic Forecasts - Romania

Country Economic Forecasts - Romania

After the latest revisions to the national accounts data, we continue to estimate that GDP grew by 4.3% in 2018, with the expansion driven by consumption and an inventory build-up. However, exports have struggled to make progress in the last few quarters, adding further pressure on the trade balance and the current account deficit (which may have widened to nearly 5% of GDP in 2018). Looking ahead, growth in 2019 is expected to slow to 2.8%, against a background of less fiscal stimulus for the consumer, the introduction of new taxes on corporations, and moderating external demand. In addition, the start of 2019 marked the beginning of Romania’s presidency over the EU for the next 6 months. However, the domestic protests about corruption in the government and parliament are expected to continue, causing awkwardness for the Romanian government and its relations with the rest of the EU.

Romania: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
Highlights and Key Issues
four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
Domestic demand
Private consumption
Fixed investment
Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
Government consumption
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Consumer prices
Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
Government budget (% of GDP)
Short-term interest rates (%)
Long-term interest rates (%)
Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
Exchange rate (vs. euro)
Economic Overview
two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
Charts and Tables
covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
Contributions to GDP growth
Monthly industrial output
Business and consumer confidence
Unemployment rate
Retail sales
Prices and earnings
Consumption and investment
Government balance and debt
GDP and industrial production
Monetary policy and bond yields
Background Information on the country
One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
Key Facts on the country
Map of the country
Key political facts
Long-term economic and social development
changes since 1980
Structure of GDP by output
latest year
Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
Corruption perceptions index- latest year
Structural economic indicators
changes since 1990
Destination of goods' exports -prior years
latest year
Composition of goods & services exports
latest year ​

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