Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar

Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar

GDP grew 3.8% y/y in Q3 with non-oil GDP up 7.8% in line with the Q1-Q3 average, though well down on the 10.6% posted in 2014. Construction activity was still booming, up 20% y/y. However, since then pressures on the economy have grown as oil prices have taken a further plunge, the currency peg has come under some pressure and the US Fed funds rate has been hiked, adding to emerging signs of tighter liquidity. We expect these factors to slow non-oil growth modestly to 7% this year, from an estimated 7.9% for 2015 as a whole, with Qatar’s greater diversification of revenues, very large policy buffers and also the immovable infrastructure requirements associated with the 2022 World Cup meaning that any government cutbacks to preserve the fiscal position will be fairly modest. Overall GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.2% from an estimated 3.7% last year, due to a rebound in hydrocarbon sector output following a sharp fall in crude output in 2015.

Qatar: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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