Poland: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below
Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs
US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs
euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered
These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Latest estimates show GDP rose 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 and 0.9% on the quarter. Traditionally the main driver of growth, consumption contributed 2% points of the 3.7% GDP growth, underpinned by a tightening labour market and rising real incomes. Despite power cuts in August, investment growth has been strong as well, with a 1.7% point contribution, supported by rising private sector credit (up 7% on the year in Q3 after 4% in Q2) and continuing allocations under the 2007-13 EU funding cycle that expires this year. We still forecast GDP growth of 3.6% for 2015 and 3.7% for 2016, meaning that Poland remains one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe. Although the end of the EU funding programme will curb investment growth, consumption should accelerate on looser monetary and fiscal policy and compensate for the slowdown in investment. But political concerns are mounting. Despite its pragmatic stance during the electoral campaign, the PiS has surprised with the speed at which it is consolidating power and undermining the established democratic institutions. Having removed five members of the constitutional court, despite widespread popular discontent and protest from the court itself, PiS has effectively cleared the way to implement policies at its own discretion. It may thus also be on track to prove wrong those observers, including ourselves, who believed that Poland would observe fiscal discipline and not exceed the EU 3% deficit threshold.