Country Economic Forecasts - Poland
Despite mounting concerns over slowing global and European demand and trade tensions with the US, the Polish economy is enjoying stellar growth rates. The Q2 1% q/q expansion was driven equally by domestic consumption and external demand, but investment disappointed. As such, we continue to see growth in 2018 at 4.7%, with risks skewed to the upside if trade tensions and weaker external demand fail to dampen growth in H2 in line with our forecast (we expect growth to slow to 0.8% q/q in H2). For 2019, we have raised our growth forecast to 3.5%.