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Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan

Attention: There is an updated edition available for this report.

Country Economic Forecasts - Pakistan

​GDP growth remains on track to reach 5% in 2015/16, up from 4.2% in 2014/15, as the more stable political scene lifts confidence and lower oil prices boost consumer demand and the balance of payments. The IMF programme also remains on track, with the latest tranche (of some US$500m) released after approval of a package of tax measures needed to meet the agreed fiscal deficit target. Activity remains constrained by ongoing power shortages and global and regional concerns. But we still expect growth to rise to 5.5-6% in 2017-18 as energy shortages are addressed and as investment picks up, boosted by projects under the US$46bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Power projects in Punjab are getting under way, together with other hydroelectric plans and road projects. But some of the proposed route is proving contentious, with China reluctant to invest heavily in the disputed Kashmir territory. Relations between Pakistan and India are improving, but tensions over Kashmir still persist.

Pakistan: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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