: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
Country Economic Forecasts > North Korea Description
More autonomy for farmers and company managers (now being extended after trials since 2012) and cost advantages encouraging neighbouring countries to expand joint industrial zones will help to lift GDP growth to around 2% a year in 2015-18, a little higher than the 1.5% estimated for 2014. And Kim Jong-un’s planned visit to Russia in May signals a move to broaden alliances and reduce reliance on China, where he has yet to travel. Medium-term risks are shifting slightly to the upside, with some limited progress towards legitimisation of the large informal sector, provoked by shortages and currently operating out-of-sight. Growers and traders may start to use retention of after-tax profits to boost output of staple goods, expanding the tax base and reducing foreign aid dependency in the longer term. However, past reform efforts have created short-term economic disruption and political instability, leading policy makers to backtrack. And risks of a transitional power-struggle remain very high.