: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast. The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below. - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following: - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered. These could include such topics as: - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year
The elections this weekend – delayed for six weeks because of the security threat posed by the Islamic militant group Boko Haram – are expected to be tight. President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling People’s Democratic Party faces former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari and the outcome is expected to be very close, despite the latter’s dismal record when he took power in a military coup in 1983 – Buhari is expected to do well mainly because Jonathan’s response to the Boko Haram crisis has been heavily criticised. Ahead of the elections, low oil prices (expected to average around US$60pb this year) and a credit rating downgrade from S&P due the worsening external accounts have added to the problems facing Nigeria, keeping the NGN under pressure. The currency has recently stabilised around NGN200 to the US$, but this is an 18% drop over the last four months and reserves have fallen steeply as the CBN has sought to halt the slide. And inflation remains a concern, rising for a third month in a row in February to 8.4%, with possible further upward pressure to come resulting from the NGN’s fall. The CBN raised interest rates by 100bp to 13% in November, but rates were left unchanged in January and then at the policy meeting on 23/24 March.