Country Economic Forecasts - Nigeria
The economy started the year on the back foot and growth slumped further during the second quarter. A gradual increase in oil output was the main driver behind the economic rebound over the past year, but a decline in oil production due to pipeline leakages dragged GDP growth down from 2% y-o-y in Q1 to 1.5% y-o-y in Q2. Aggregate non-oil activity looks to have gained some traction, but closer inspection reveals that the recovery is far from broad-based, raising doubts about its sustainability. As such, we have revised our growth projection sharply lower to 1.8% in 2018.