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Country Economic Forecasts - Morocco


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Country Economic Forecasts - Morocco

​GDP growth accelerated to 4.6% in Q3 2015, with agricultural sector growth rising to 15.9% due to a 60%+ jump in cereal production following a record harvest. There have also been big increases in seafood and olive oil exports. As a result of the surge in agriculture, GDP is forecast to grow 4.5% in 2015 overall, up from 2.4% in 2014. But there remains an underlying weakness in economic activity, with non-agricultural growth slowing to 1.6% in Q2 and Q3 from 2% in Q1. The phosphate, tourism and construction sectors were all sluggish in mid-2015. And as agriculture starts to slow, overall GDP growth is expected to ease to 2.8% in 2016. The trade deficit in the first 10 months of 2015 fell by a third compared with the same period of 2014. This was largely driven by a drop of over 20% in the import bill, more than half of which was due to lower energy prices while food imports also fell. Partly as a result of the sharply reduced trade deficit, we now forecast that the current account gap will narrow to just 2.2% of GDP in 2015 from 5.7% in 2014 (and over 7% in 2013).


Morocco: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- Highlights and Key Issues
- four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview
- Forecast Table showing % changes for the country
- with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- Domestic demand
- Private consumption
- Fixed investment
- Stockbuilding (% of GDP)
- Government consumption
- Exports of goods and services
- Imports of goods and services
- Unemployment
- Consumer prices
- Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP)
- Government budget (% of GDP)
- Short-term interest rates (%)
- Long-term interest rates (%)
- Exchange rate (vs. US dollar)
- Exchange rate (vs. euro)
- Economic Overview
- two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts
- Charts and Tables
- covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
These could include such topics as:
- Contributions to GDP growth
- Monthly industrial output
- Business and consumer confidence
- Unemployment rate
- Retail sales
- Prices and earnings
- Consumption and investment
- Government balance and debt
- GDP and industrial production
- Monetary policy and bond yields
- Background Information on the country
- One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position
- Key Facts on the country
- Map of the country
- Key political facts
- Long-term economic and social development
- changes since 1980
- Structure of GDP by output
- latest year
- Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook
- Corruption perceptions index- latest year
- Structural economic indicators
- changes since 1990
- Destination of goods' exports -prior years
- latest year
- Composition of goods & services exports
- latest year ​

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