Country Economic Forecasts - Mexico
Nafta progress is in the spotlight after the US and Mexico talks yielded an ‘agreement in principle’. Trilateral talks could follow as soon as the US and Canada sort out their bilateral issues. Meanwhile, Mexico’s GDP growth in H1 2018 was revised down and early H2 indicators have been underwhelming, with mounting external headwinds now bringing exchange rate pressures despite fading domestic uncertainty. Taking these factors into account, we have no choice but to temper our short-term optimism about Mexico’s outlook. We have lowered our 2018 and 2019 GDP growth forecasts to 2.0% and 2.2% respectively and revised up our end-2018 and 2019 inflation forecasts to 4.7% and 3.7%.
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