Country Economic Forecasts - Lithuania
GDP rose 0.6% on the quarter in Q2 but, with the annual growth rate slowing to 1.3% (and about 1.5% in H1), we have cut our 2015 growth forecast to 2.1%. Consumer spending has remained quite solid, but has been unable to offset sharply slower investment growth and loss of exports due to problems in Russian and the Eurozone. The pace of growth should accelerate to 3.6% in 2016 and then close to 4.5% a year in 2017-18 as exports are lifted by stronger growth in main trade partners and investment recovers as security concerns surrounding Russian intentions subside. But the short-term risks remain high, with leaders warning that possible aggression from Russia may prevent any immediate recovery in domestic investment or FDI, and Russia capable of inflicting further price deflation if it blocks more export channels. Despite these risks, our forecast shows Lithuania staying among the EU’s faster-growing economies as a result of enduring trade advantages from a relatively low-cost and high-skilled workforce and newly emerging technology-based clusters promoted by recovering FDI inflows.
- Lithuania: The following represents a general Table of Contents outline for the Country Economic Forecast.
- The actual report may cover any or all of the topics listed below.
- - Highlights and Key Issues - four/five paragraphs of analysis covering the main economic and political issues contained in the subsequent Economic Overview - Forecast Table showing % changes for the country - with 2 years of historical data and 4 years of forecast data for the following:
- - Domestic demand - Private consumption - Fixed investment - Stockbuilding (% of GDP) - Government consumption - Exports of goods and services - Imports of goods and services - Unemployment - Consumer prices - Current account balance (US$ and % of GDP) - Government budget (% of GDP) - Short-term interest rates (%) - Long-term interest rates (%) - Exchange rate (vs. US dollar) - Exchange rate (vs. euro) - Economic Overview - two pages of events-driven analysis highlighting the most recent economic activity and, where relevant, political developments of the country, detailing significant changes to Oxford Economics' forecasts - Charts and Tables - covering a full range of economic developments relevant to the time period covered.
- These could include such topics as:
- - Contributions to GDP growth - Monthly industrial output - Business and consumer confidence - Unemployment rate - Retail sales - Prices and earnings - Consumption and investment - Government balance and debt - GDP and industrial production - Monetary policy and bond yields - Background Information on the country - One or two pages of text covering the main historical political and economic factors that determine the country's current position - Key Facts on the country - Map of the country - Key political facts - Long-term economic and social development - changes since 1980 - Structure of GDP by output - latest year - Long-term sovereign credit ratings and outlook - Corruption perceptions index- latest year - Structural economic indicators - changes since 1990 - Destination of goods' exports -prior years - latest year - Composition of goods & services exports - latest year